Survival rates can give you an idea of what percentage of people with the same type and stage of cancer are still alive a certain amount of time (usually 5 years) after they were diagnosed. They can’t tell you how long you will live, but they may help give you a better understanding of how likely it is that your treatment will be successful.

Keep in mind that survival rates are estimates and are often based on previous outcomes of large numbers of people who had a specific cancer, but they can’t predict what will happen in any particular person’s case. These statistics can be confusing and may lead you to have more questions. Talk with your doctor about how these numbers may apply to you, as he or she is familiar with your situation.

What is a 5-year relative survival rate?

A relative survival rate compares women with the same type and stage of breast cancer to women in the overall population. For example, if the 5-year relative survival rate for a specific stage of breast cancer is 90%, it means that women who have that cancer are, on average, about 90% as likely as women who don’t have that cancer to live for at least 5 years after being diagnosed.

Where do these numbers come from?

The American Cancer Society relies on information from the SEER* database, maintained by the National Cancer Institute (NCI), to provide survival statistics for different types of cancer.

The SEER database tracks 5-year relative survival rates for breast cancer in the United States, based on how far the cancer has spread. The SEER database, however, does not group cancers by AJCC TNM stages  (stage 1, stage 2, stage 3, etc.). Instead, it groups cancers into localized, regional, and distant stages:

• Localized: There is no sign that the cancer has spread outside of the breast.
• Regional: The cancer has spread outside the breast to nearby structures or lymph nodes.
• Distant: The cancer has spread to distant parts of the body such as the lungs, liver or bones.

5-year relative survival rates for breast cancer

(Based on women diagnosed with breast cancer between 2009 and 2015.)

Understanding the numbers

• Women now being diagnosed with breast cancer may have a better outlook than these numbers show. Treatments improve over time, and these numbers are based on women who were diagnosed and treated at least five years earlier.
• These numbers apply only to the stage of the cancer when it is first diagnosed. They do not apply later on if the cancer grows, spreads, or comes back after treatment.
• These numbers don’t take everything into account. Survival rates are grouped based on how far the cancer has spread, but your age, overall health, how well the cancer responds to treatment, tumor grade, the presence of hormone receptors on the cancer cells, Her2 status, and other factors can also affect your outlook.
• Survival rates for women with triple-negative breast cancer are different than those above. See Triple-negative Breast Cancer.
• Survival rates for women with inflammatory breast cancer are different than those above. See Inflammatory Breast Cancer.

*SEER= Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results